The Mediterranean slope has once again been in the center of an important rainfall episode. From Zaragoza to Murcia, rainfall has flooded streets and squares. Fortunately, the situation has not achieved the magnitude of what we saw last fall, but the situation led yesterday to the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet) to issue several notices, including red notices due to extreme risk.
Final in sight. The situation has not yet been reversed, although the focus of the rains has been moving. If yesterday the most affected areas were in the center and north of the Levantine coast, today the risks are concentrated in the provinces of Valencia, Alicante, as well as in Murcia and in the Balearic Islands: in the early hours of today, Eivissa has seen fall More than 115 mm of water.
Yesterday the accumulated rainfall They touch the 240 mm in barxValencia, and exceeded 100 mm at the province airport. In some areas of Castellón and Tarragona, rainfall also exceeded 57 mm.
Experts expect the transition to October to bring a radical change in the atmospheric. Aemet does not include in its forecast the arrival of significant phenomena and indicates that it is expected “it provides stable time in much of the country”, except in the eastern zone that will still see rethinking instability due to the influence of the cold trough.
Radical change. The Aemet monthly forecasts They seem to secondary this idea: the agency provides that a driest month of October than usual in almost the entire peninsula and, especially, in the northwestern zone. It is also expected that the temperatures of the next few days will be higher than what would correspond to these autumn dates.
The thing could change during the second half of the month. Although temperatures could continue to be high, the agency begins to glimpse anomalously high rainfall on the Levantine coast during the week that begins on the 13th. Some somewhat more abundant rainfall is also expected than usual in the southwest quadrant during the final stretch of the month.
Two slopes, two stories. But if we want to know (or at least intuit) what we have autumn, we have to go to the longer term forecasts. What do these forecasts suggest? Well, the tonic will last, with two different trends in peninsular Spain.
Regarding rainfall, Aemet foresees a dry autumn in much of the territory. Probabilistically, the agency talks about 45% probabilities of a dry autumn compared to 20% probabilities of a humid fall. However, the thing changes in the east zone, where uncertainty prevails with respect to whether autumn will be wetter, drier or if on the contrary it will remain within the parameters of normality.
Echoes of a different autumn. The forecasts give rise to a complicated scenario: the lack of rainfall in much of the country implies the return of the ghost of the drought. As if this were not enough, the predictions on the Mediterranean coast are compatible with the arrival of intense rainfall episodes. These do not have to reach the magnitude of those that occurred last year, but the rains of these days show us that they do not have to reach such dimension to cause important problems.
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Image | ECMWF
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