usatoday24
We approach the culminating point of the heat wave. In many places the thermometers have already exceeded the mark of the 40º Celsius and the situation will last throughout the week, according to the forecasts. The question for many is to what extent this is strange in the middle of August.
In full heat wave. Yesterday we lived that could be the first day of the new heat wave that looms over Spain. During the day the State Meteorology Agency (AEMET) registered temperatures above 43º In two seasons in the south of the Peninsula (Badajoz, and Almadén, in Ciudad Real), but many more registered maxims above 40º.
A heat, normal? The last days of July and early August tend to be the hottest of the year. That is why it is logical to think that we are simply at the heat of the cannula. However, there are ways to verify that this is not the case.
First, the terminology used: heat waves are, by definition, abnormal heat situations. Although there is no strict definition of what a heat wave is, we can resort to Aemet as standard. This situation occurs when at least 10% of the weather stations collect temperatures in the 95th of the distribution for at least three consecutive days.
The agency has warned of the possibility that we are in the first days of a heat wave, it has not confirmed that we are already in one since we are still talking about forecasts. Of course, the probability assigned to the event is high, of 80%.
More than 10. Another way of seeing the uniqueness of this event is through thermal anomalies, the difference between the temperatures that we predict or observed and the average temperature that would correspond to these dates in a certain place or area.
According to Physicist Sergio Escama points out in Meteoredthe weather models advance thermal anomalies between 10º and 12º that will affect “wide areas” not only of the southern peninsular, also the center and interior. The heat will also be elevated for dates in the northern half, although foreseeably not until the same point.
The answer, also in the atmosphere. If we want to understand what has normal and what is anomalous this situation, we can also look at the situation of the atmosphere. According to Details Aemetwe are faced with a “quite stationary, with high Atlantic pressures extending over a large part of the territory and low pressures to the peninsular southwest”. This situation facilitates the entry of warm and dry air from North Africa.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that we are in summer, which implies a high degree of insolation due to the longest days and the greatest angle with which the sun affects the territory.
What can we expect from the heat wave. The agency foresee That the maxims today continue to rise, with the mercury exceeding the 40º “in large areas of the southern half of the Atlantic aspect and surroundings of the Miño,” according to the agency in its forecast. Tomorrow Tuesday could also register temperatures above 40º in much of the southern half of the Atlantic aspect and also in the depressions of the Northeast.
Thus, Aemet He has activated notices For extreme temperatures in almost the entire peninsula, with several orange notices for important risks in part of the southern quadrant, Andalusia and areas of Galicia. Many of these notices will remain active during the highest heat hours at least between today and Thursday.
The northern hemisphere, to the red red. The anomalous situation that affects our environment has its reflection in the data at a global scale: the northern hemisphere is also in a situation of warm anomaly. According to the data of Climate Resanalyzer (of July 29), the average temperature in this hemisphere is 22.43º.
This represents a thermal anomaly of 0.75º with respect to the average of the years between 1991 and 2020, but an anomaly of 1.14º above the average of the years between 1979 and 2000. This implies that we are before the third most warm August in the northern hemisphere, behind the year 2023 and tied with 2024.
Image | ECMWF
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