Two technological revolutions are redefining, at the same time, the entire energy sector: the transition to renewable sources and the unstoppable boom of artificial intelligence. The first needs cheap and efficient batteries. The second has an insatiable data appetite and needs hardware to store them. The problem is that both are colliding in the market of An ultrarrao metal: Ruthenium. And the AI is winning the battle.
Ruthenium is in historical maximums. In the last year, this discreet silver gray mineral has become The unexpected star of raw material markets. Its price has doubled, reaching $ 25,720 per kilogram, according to data from the Johnson Matthey metal refining that Bloomberg collects. The figure not only eclipses gold or silver increases, but also touches its historical maximum of $ 27,970, reached 18 years ago.
What has unleashed this fever. The answer is in data centers that feed artificial intelligence. Ruthenium, a Platinum Group metal, is exceptionally hard and versatile. One of its applications in electronics are high -capacity hard drives, which use a river layer of less than a thick nanometer to greatly increase data density. As the generative AI and the Cloud Computing They demand to store astronomical amounts of information, the demand is triggered.
But the background problem is scarcity. Ruthenium is one of the most rare elements of the earth’s crust. It is obtained almost exclusively as a byproduct of platinum mining, and its annual supply is tiny: just 30 tons last year. Unless the investment in mining increases, analysts expect the market Enter in deficit next year. That is, the demand exceeds the supply.
Not only does it need Ruthenio. In addition to hard drives, metal is a vital component in Several of the most promising chemists For massive energy storage batteries. Ruthenium oxide offers unique capacitance and loading and discharge speed, so It was intended to be used in Super Current before the AI duplicate its price.
It is also a necessary metal In lithium-oxygen batteriesconsidered one of the next great revolutions in batteries for its very high energy density. But these cells depend on efficient catalysts. Ruthenium nanocatalysts achieve extraordinary capabilities and life cycles, but with the current price they are unfeasible.
How it affects the energy sector. No sector is able to face investments as large as that of artificial intelligence. The AI is staying with the Ruthenium to save data while the entire planet faces another urgent challenge: store energy to abandon fossil fuels. Intermittent renewables, such as solar and wind, need large -scale batteries to keep the energy they generate when the sun shines or the wind blows, being able to use it later when night falls or the wind stops blowing.
According to the International Energy Agencyin 2023 42 GW of capacity in batteries were installed, more than double than the previous year. It is an impressive, but insufficient figure to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The world needs to multiply that rhythm by six and reach about 1,500 GW of storage capacity from here to 2030 (of which 1,200 GW would be batteries).
Is there any alternative to Ruthenium? There are other technologies that allow storing large amounts of data, but they are very expensive, so the industry continues to bet on ruthenium. In fact, a report by International Data Corp. provides that sales of hard drives with Ruthenium will increase 16% this year, dragging metal stocks.
Researchers from all over the world have spent years developing new advanced batteries assuming a price for ruthenium that, although high, was manageable. Now, the explosion of the demand for AI has created a cost curve that no one anticipated, and that forces to start from scratch.
Image | Metalle-W (CC by-SA 3.0)
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