The spark that set the White House on fire was Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to participate in the offensive against Tehran, under a speech that evokes the popular sentiment of 2003: “No to war.” Sánchez defends that Spain’s position is consistent with its actions in Ukraine or Gaza, seeking to avoid a spiral of global violence.
However, Trump’s anger was not born yesterday. According to official documentsSpain had been discreetly blocking the transit and export of weapons to Israel for months, denying ship stops and vetoing dozens of military operations. Added to this is Trump’s historic reproach for Defense spending: the American president demands 5% of GDP, while Spain barely exceeds 2%. Trump’s response has been withering, mentioning for the first time the word “embargo”, a tool that the US usually reserves for “enemies” like North Korea or Venezuela, not for NATO allies.
A life preserver that can sink. The threat of cutting trade ties is not a minor issue. In January 2026, the United States consolidated itself as the leading supplier of natural gas to Spain, accounting for a historic 44.4% of the total imported (15,259 GWh), far surpassing Algeria, how to collect Europa Press.
Spain has spent a decade reinforcing its energy dependence on the US market to replace Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, the US supplied 30% of our gas and 15% of our oil. Strategic companies like Naturgy have critical exposure, with 40% of their LNG contracts linked to plants in Texas and Louisiana, according to The Independent. If Trump turns off the tap, Spain loses its main gas resource.
The collapse of the Gulf, can we look the other way? Faced with the American threat, the Spanish Government is trying to send a message of calm. Minister Sara Aagesen maintains that the supply is “broadly diversified” and that only 2% of our gas transits through the conflictive Strait of Hormuz. Spain has seven regasification plants, which allows us to bring ships from almost anywhere in the world.
However, optimism collides with a suffocating global reality. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes, is experiencing a technical closure due to war tension. QatarEnergy declared for the first time “Force Majeure” after suffering attacks on its LNG plants. This creates a domino effect: if Asia loses gas from Qatar, it will compete fiercely against Europe for the few ships available from the US or the African continent. As the expert Ignacio Urbasos explains in it The Countrythe market is interconnected; Although the gas does not pass through Hormuz, the price we will pay is decided there.
12 euros more per month. The impact of this perfect storm already has figures. According to the calculations of the Roams platform, The gas bill in Spain could increase by up to 18% and the electricity bill by 17%. An average household would go from paying about 50 euros for gas to almost 60, while the electricity bill could rise by about 12 euros per month, as he also explains The Newspaper.
Natural gas in the Netherlands TTF market has already been triggered almost 80% in just two days. Furthermore, gasoline is not far behind: experts predict increases of up to 8% at the pump, placing a liter of gasoline above 1.58 euros. This is not just energy; It’s inflation. The European Central Bank warns that a prolonged conflict could bring inflation in Spain to 3%, forcing interest rates to remain high for longer, directly affecting variable mortgages.
The dilemma of the “energy island”. The point is that Spain has plenty of regasification infrastructure to help Europe, but it lacks interconnections (pipes to France) to pump that gas to the heart of the continent. Furthermore, our gas reserves they are at 59%a figure notably lower than 72% last year, because companies did not fill warehouses waiting for lower prices that never arrived.
The only consensus between analysts and the Government is that this crisis accelerates a lesson learned hard: the vulnerability of depending on foreign fossil fuels. As Alison Candlin points outof the think tank Ember, until we complete the shift to a renewable-based system, we will always be hostage to these price shocks. In Spain, the effort to scale wind and solar power has already reduced the influence of expensive gas on the price of electricity by 75% in the last six years, but the road ahead is still long and, now, is full of diplomatic mines.
Image | Hannes Grobe
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