The global and European energy market is experiencing an unprecedented metamorphosis. If just three years ago the world held his breath In the face of scarcity, today the scenario is the opposite. According to Bloomberga “record supply wave” is creating a “buyers’ market” that will last until the end of the decade. But the news is not only that there is more gas, but that the rules of the game for buying and selling it in Europe have changed forever: gas has ceased to be a slow raw material and has become a high-speed financial asset.
The giants are awakening. The engine of this saturation has its own names. According to Bloomberg dataglobal LNG production grew by 6% in 2025 and the trend has only just begun. This year, two megaprojects—Golden Pass in Texas and the massive Qatar expansion—will begin pumping fuel, alone adding 11% to total global exports once they reach full capacity.
This reality has reconfigured the European board. According to a report by S&P Globalthe United States is already the absolute owner of the supply in the old continent, representing 77.53% of imports in 2025. The market no longer reflects shortages, but rather the symptoms of an “excess supply” that is forcing prices down, with the JKM index (Asia) and the TTF (Europe) narrowing their margins.
The end of office hours: The gas becomes “hyperactive.” One of the most profound changes is not on the ships, but on the traders’ screens. As revealed by the newsletter Energy Daily from Bloombergthe Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has extended trading of gas and electricity products to 22 hours a day.
This movement breaks with decades of tradition. Before, all traders logged on at 8 am in Amsterdam to check inventories and weather news. Now, the market operates almost tirelessly to synchronize with the United States and Asia. This movement allows you to react “instantly” to nightly headlines about Iran or Ukraine. The result is a cglobal price convergence, but with a risk: this immediacy can amplify sudden movements and volatility in the short term.
The landing of the Hedge Funds. This new liquidity and opening hours has attracted a risk-hungry player: the Hedge Funds. By not being tied to physical assets (such as pipelines or ships), these funds can bet on pure volatility. As Bloomberg analysis explainswhile traditional traders suffer from low margins, hedge funds take advantage of the arbitrage opportunities generated by a market that never sleeps. Gas has officially become an asset as dynamic as oil or currencies.
The respite of emerging nations. Supply saturation has a human lifeline. The collapse in prices is allowing emerging nations such as Vietnam, India and Myanmar return to the market. After being squeezed out by prohibitive prices in the 2022 crisis, these countries are absorbing excess LNG to displace coal and power their growing electricity grids. It is this Asian appetite that is preventing the market from totally collapsing under the weight of the new American and Qatari supply.
The point goes beyond. And as always there is the geopolitical factor. This abundance puts giants like Shell and Exxon Mobil in a bind. According to ReutersShell is already suffering the consequences, with a drop in its trading results that calls into question its $3.5 billion share buybacks.
For its part, Donald Trump’s geopolitics adds fuel to the fire. How Reuters has had accessTrump has pressured oil companies to revitalize Venezuela after Maduro’s departure, but Exxon CEO Darren Woods has been skeptical, calling the country “uninvestable.” At the same time, the market is watching Trump’s tariffs on Iran, that according to the Bloomberg graphhave taken Brent crude oil to almost $65, complicating the strategy of some “majors” that must find buyers for their surplus gas in an increasingly volatile world.
The European “Wall”. In Europe, the battle is not about gas, but for the infrastructure. Given the slow pace of works on land, the EU has entrusted its fate to FSRUs (floating regasification units). These ships are the mobile “plugs” needed to process gas crossing the Atlantic.
On the other hand, Spain is the perfect example of the disconnection between abundance and transportation. Despite being the Europe’s “renewable laboratory”the country has hit a technical wall. Gas consumption for electricity rose by 26% in 2025 to act as a “bodyguard” of the network and avoid blackouts. However, the year closed as the third most expensive in history for the Spanish consumer. Spain has gas on its coasts, but it does not have enough “cables or pipes” (interconnections) to relieve the rest of the continent or lower its own bill.
The trap of 2050. Despite the renewable boom, a McKinsey & Company report projects that global gas demand will increase by 26% towards 2050. Gas is not being retired; It is being repositioned as the life support of an electrical network that does not know how to function on its own.
As a Morgan Stanley report concludesthe energy success of 2026 is no longer negotiated in political offices in Moscow. It is decided on the speed of the algorithms of the hedge funds that operate 22 hours a day, in the capacity of the floating terminals and in the engineers who must untangle the knot of the European electricity network. There is plenty of gas, but the path for this relief to reach the final consumer is still full of obstacles.
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