Bad news for drivers of diesel vehicles, who continue to be the majority in our country although they sell less and less. This fuel, which has traditionally been cheaper than gasoline, now faces a worrying future, and in fact the savings it previously offered are fading.
It doesn’t stop going up. In the last five months the price of diesel has not stopped rising and in total its cost for the user has increased by 7% in this period. This upward trend is a setback for millions of users who see how the traditional economic advantage of their vehicles fades away little by little compared to gasoline options.
Price gap closes. The most recent data from the EU Oil Bulletin, for the last week of November, indicate that the average price of diesel has stood at 1,456 euros per liter. That of 95 octane gasoline has not changed that much, and its appreciation in that time has been 2.1%, standing at 1,489 euros. The price difference between both fuels has been reducing in this second half of the year, and is now only 0.033 euros per liter, the narrowest margin since December 2023.
Nuances. In reality, Spain’s situation is not exceptional, and in the EU there are already 11 countries – such as Austria, Belgium or Sweden – in which diesel is more expensive than gasoline. However, Spain remains one of the regions with the most affordable diesel, and is the fourth “cheapest” country in the EU, only behind Malta, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
Russia and winter. Inés Cardenal, Director of Legal Affairs of the Fuel Industry of Spain (AICE), explained in El País the possible causes. According to her, Russia “is a large producer of refined diesel, the fuel most consumed in winter in Europe, and that has continued to put pressure on the market for three years due to the mismatch between supply and demand.” The US sanctions on large Russian crude oil producers They don’t help, of course.
Diesel had an advantage. The truth is that diesel plays with a fundamental advantage in Spain: It has a tax burden that is 10 cents per liter less than that affecting gasoline, something that has led to its lower price. However Spain promised Europe a tax reform in exchange for continuing to receive European funds, and the idea is precisely increase the tax burden on diesel to equate it to that of gasoline.
The surprise has already happened. In the last 20 years there have only been two times when the price of diesel exceeded that of gasoline. The first in 2008 due to the massive “dieselization” of vehicles in Spain. The second, due to the war in Ukraine, which caused diesel to be slightly above gasoline in March 2022 (€1.83/l vs €1.81/l) and remained above half a year.
Uncertainty. Although the price of crude oil has remained relatively stable in the last year, European fiscal policies and the geopolitical situation point to a potential paradigm shift. It may not be a bad idea to prepare for a scenario in which fill the tank in a diesel vehicle no longer represents the savings of yesteryear.
Image | Ali Mkumbwa
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