In April there was a paradox that we count. While Finland again became the “happier” nation From the planet, a United States army had reached its borders to prepare for “the worst.” Thus began a simulation where Finland’s defense forces and a Washington operation were trained together for a eventual invasion. If there was any questions about who the enemy was, Russia has just cleared it.
Remove silent. I told it in Exclusive the Wall Street Journal supported by the satellite data that he had achieved. While much of international attention is still focused on war in Ukraine, Europe begins to worry to a series of strategic movements of the Russian army that, without making almost noise, are redefining the military balance of the continent. In the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 kilometers from the border with Finland, military engineers work on the expansion of bases and the creation of a new headquarters that will house tens of thousands of soldiers in the coming years, many of which today fight in Ukraine.
These troops, according to Intelligence sources Western, they are not designed for the current war, but for future confrontations with NATO. Moscow has intensified recruitment, modernized rail infrastructure in border areas and duplicated its military budget, already exceeds 6% of GDP. President Putin has ordered that the size of the Russian armed forces increase until 1.5 million troopsand although publicly denies expansionist aspirations, its government continues to give contradictory signs, including official statements that affirm the need to prepare for a possible confrontation With the Atlantic Alliance.
Rejuvenate the army. It is one of the consequences. The rebound of military spending has promoted an unprecedented acceleration in weapons production. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia manufactured around 40 T-90m tanks a year. Now produce almost 300although many are not sent to the front, but are reserved in national territory. Artillery and ammunition production has also increased, and Russian drones have won in quality and volume.
Thus, the Moscow army, far from collapse, is being reconfigured faster than most analysts had planned, with new units, equipment and a constant rotation of troops that allows to maintain pressure in Ukraine while other formations are prepared on Russian soil. In fact, some European intelligence services alert A “B” scenario: If a fire is achieved in Ukraine, Russia could be in a position to launch a large -scale war in Europe within five years, or even before if you perceive weakness in NATO cohesion.
Tensions on the eastern flank. No doubt, Russian military strengthening has unleashed immediate reactions in Baltic and Poland countries, which have already Started to reinforce Its borders with ditches, antipersonnel mines and anti -tanks, the acquaintances as “dragon teeth”. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have abandoned international treaties on mines, and several governments consider plausible that Russia seeks to test the solidity of NATO through a limited incursion in a member state with Russian population, as Estonia.
To this is added the concern caused by covert operations attributed to the Russian Intelligence Servicessuch as sabotage attempts and murders in Western Europe. Hence, many analysts warn that the Kremlin could bet on a lower provocation that fractures consensus within the alliance, especially if you perceive internal divisions or lack of coordinated response.
Territorial strategy For its part, The Journal remembered that Putin has resorted to the historical legacy of the Russian military force (which beat Napoleon and Hitler) to justify the war in Ukraine and his ambition to recover influence on former allies who have leaned towards the West. The Russian government has reorganized its internal military structure creating new districts Around Moscow and St. Petersburg, and has increased logistics cooperation with Belarus, its main ally and basis of operations in the current war.
In the Leningrad Military District, which borders Estonia, Latvia and Finland, medium -sized brigades are being transformed into divisions of up to 10,000 troopsand barracks, hospitals, warehouses and new railway routes are being built that connect with Norway, Finland and the south of St. Petersburg. Finland, who historically has tried to avoid tensions with Russia but is now part of NATO, Observe carefully The renewal of ancient border steps and the construction of railway headers that would allow the passage of mechanized forces, with direct implications for their national security.
New social elite. Explained the medium that one of the pillars of this military reconstruction is the huge Increased recruitmentpowered by Financial incentives that in some cases exceed $ 20,000 to sign a contract. These sums far exceed Average annual income In many Russian regions, and have allowed a constant flow of new soldiers (between 30,000 and 40,000 per month According to estimates) that allows Russia to maintain its presence in Ukraine without exhausting its strategic reserve.
Not just that. In addition, the medium exposed another measure that we have already counted a few weeks ago: veterans are receiving Extended benefitsas positions in local governments and seats in Parliament, consolidating the military estate as a New National Elite. The new recruits will be mostly intended for the units that are deployed at the border with NATO, and for them the new armament is reserved, while the Ukrainian front continues to receive reconditioned Soviet material.
Russia’s next strategic military exercises, called Zapadthey will focus on these border regions, and they are expected to serve as a demonstration of force addressed to both NATO and internal public opinion.
New power architecture. In summary, Russia is betting very strongly that her military resurgence, combined with a possible Western fatigue before the Ukrainian conflict, returns her back A seat in the table where new security rules in Europe are defined. Although figures like Trump They discard the possibility that Russia has ambitions beyond Ukraine, the facts Described in the Journal On land and warnings of multiple European intelligence agencies suggest otherwise.
If you want also, Moscow seems to trust that an NATO divided, uncoordinated or weakened by internal conflicts will be forced to negotiate from a disadvantage position against a revitalized and armed Russia to teeth. With history always as justification, Kremlin is thus preparing for a future in which diplomacy will be subordinated to the military force, and in which the control of the routes, the troops and the capacity of deterrence aim to be the true currency of change in the continental geopolitics.
Image | Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, NATO North ATL
In Xataka | Finland is the happiest country in the world. And is also preparing thoroughly for the most unhappy end: war
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings